Resilience model (MTSRF Project 2.5i.4)

This simulation model allows various scenarios to be run which test how different percentages of nutrient reductions (and the parallel improvement in inshore reef quality) might operate in conjunction with raised water temperatures (as a result of climate change).The model has been used for the following simulations:The beneficial impact of end-of-catchment dissolved inorganic nutrients reductions (10%, 30%, 50% and 70%) in raising the bleaching resistance (i.e. the UTBT, °C) of inshore reefs between Townsville and Cooktown.The impact of 10%, 30%, 50% and 70% reductions in end-of-catchment dissolved inorganic nutrients for the Burdekin, Herbert, Tully, Johnstone, Russell, Barron, Daintree, Endeavour, Jeannie and Normanby river systems.Two scenarios for the Tully River Basin - an 18% reduction in fertiliser N application, and a 35% reduction.To develop a tool that enables greater characterization of risks posed to the linked GBR social-ecological system due to the effects of climate change.The model interfaces source code written in C++ with ArcGIS webmaps.Details pertaining to the rationale, development and application of the individual submodels and integrating framework can be found within the refereed journal articles.本模拟模型可支撑多类模拟场景的开展，用于测试不同比例的营养盐削减（以及近岸珊瑚礁质量的同步提升）与气候变化引发的水体升温之间的协同效应。本模型已应用于以下模拟工作：针对汤斯维尔（Townsville）与库克敦（Cooktown）之间的近岸珊瑚礁，开展流域末端溶解态无机营养盐分别削减10%、30%、50%、70%对提升其热漂白抗性（即UTBT，单位：℃）的有益效应模拟；针对伯德金（Burdekin）、赫伯特（Herbert）、塔利（Tully）、约翰斯通（Johnstone）、拉塞尔（Russell）、巴伦（Barron）、丹特里（Daintree）、恩德沃（Endeavour）、珍妮（Jeannie）以及诺曼比（Normanby）河系，开展流域末端溶解态无机营养盐分别削减10%、30%、50%、70%的效应模拟；针对塔利河流域设置两类模拟场景：氮肥施用量削减18%，以及削减35%。本模型的开发目标是打造一款工具，以更全面地刻画气候变化对大堡礁（Great Barrier Reef，GBR）社会-生态复合系统带来的各类风险。本模型实现了C++编写的源代码与ArcGIS在线地图（ArcGIS webmaps）的接口对接。有关各子模型与集成框架的设计原理、开发过程及应用细节，均可查阅已完成同行评审的期刊论文。