Predicting residents' performance: A prospective study

BACKGROUND: Objective criteria for predicting residents' performance do not exist. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that global assessment by an intern selection committee (ISC) would correlate with the future performance of residents. METHODS: A prospective study of 277 residents between 1992 and 1999. Global assessment at the time of interview was compared to subsequent clinical (assessed by chief residents) and cognitive performance (assessed by the American Board of Pediatrics in-service training examination). RESULTS: ISC ratings correlated significantly with clinical performance at 24 and 36 months of training (r = 0.58, P < .001; and r = 0.60, P < .001 respectively). ISC ratings also correlated significantly with in-service exam scores in the 1(st), 2(nd), and 3(rd) years of training (r = 0.35, P = .0016; r = 0.39, P = 0.0003; r = 0.50, P = 0.005 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Global assessment by an ISC predicted residents' clinical and cognitive performances.