Multiple continental radiations and correlates of diversification in Lupinus (Leguminosae): testing for key innovation with incomplete taxon sampling

Replicate radiations provide powerful comparative systems to address questions about the interplay between opportunity and innovation in driving episodes of diversification and the factors limiting their subsequent progression. However, such systems have been rarely documented at intercontinental scales. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis of multiple radiations in the genus Lupinus (Leguminosae), which exhibits some of the highest known rates of net diversification in plants. Given that incomplete taxon sampling, background extinction, and lineage-specific variation in diversification rates can confound macroevolutionary inferences regarding the timing and mechanisms of cladogenesis, we used Bayesian relaxed clock phylogenetic analyses as well as MEDUSA and BiSSE birth–death likelihood models of diversification, to evaluate the evolutionary patterns of lineage accumulation in Lupinus. We identified 3 significant shifts to increased rates of net diversification (r) relative to background l...