Scenario for Impacts to Ecosystem Attributes Colorado Plateau

We assessed the spatial pattern and extent of potential impacts of spatially overlapping high intensity land-use and aridification trends on landscape attributes: crop productivity, soil productivity, vegetation and wildlife habitat, and recreation tourism economy, as well as two ecosystem services: water availability (provisioning service) and spiritual and cultural values (cultural service). The intensity indices (0–1) for the land-use and climate change variables were combined using different weights for four scenarios (see publication) to estimate the magnitude of potential impact of spatial overlap, with higher values indicating greater impact. For each scenario, we defined areas as high- or low-intensity impact according to quantiles (high: ≥75% quantile; low: ≤25% quantile). This dataset represents the area of consensus for high and low impacts for each ecosystem attribute. Since some parts of the Colorado Plateau have a very low proportion of cropland, we only analyzed impacts on cropland productivity in areas with higher cropland intensity (>25% quantile). Similarly, only areas with substantial recreation intensity (>25% quantile) were evaluated for impacts on the recreation tourism economy.