A Global Analysis of Islamist Violence

This paper examines the relationship between percentage of Muslims in the population and two separate measures of Islamist violence for a large cross-section of countries (n = 168). The first measure of Islamist violence is the number of Islamist attacks 2001–2017 (logged); the second is the number of casualties from Islamist violence 2001–2017 (logged). Percentage Muslim was strongly associated with both measures of Islamist violence (β = .49–50). These associations were not disproportionately driven by co-variation within one or two global regions: positive associations were found within Sub-Saharan Africa (β = .35–36), South & East Asia (β = .49–50), Eurasia (β = .28–37), and the West (β = .35–46). The raw associations within Latin America & Caribbean (β = .16–19) were weak, and those within Middle East & North Africa were negative (β = –.17–20). Yet the results for Middle East & North Africa were attributable to Israel being a major outlier; when Israel was omitted, very weak positive associations emerged (β = .06–.10). In a multiple regression analysis, both associations were robust to controlling for region fixed-effects, land area (logged), absolute latitude, average elevation, terrain roughness, legal origin, GDP per capita (logged), democracy, and ethnic fractionalisation (β = .29–30). Consistent with a previous study, both percentage Muslim (β = .24–58) and indicators of military intervention in the Middle East (β = .21–58) were associated with Islamist violence across Western countries.

本文深入探讨了人口中穆斯林比例与多个独立测度之间的关联，研究对象为众多国家的大型横截面数据（n = 168）。其中，伊斯兰主义暴力的第一个测度是2001至2017年间伊斯兰主义袭击的次数（取对数）；第二个测度是2001至2017年间伊斯兰主义暴力造成的伤亡人数（取对数）。穆斯林比例与这两项伊斯兰主义暴力的测度均呈显著正相关（β = .49–50）。这些关联并非由某一或两个全球区域内的共变异常驱动：在撒哈拉以南非洲（β = .35–36）、南亚及东亚（β = .49–50）、欧亚大陆（β = .28–37）以及西方（β = .35–46）均发现了正向关联。拉丁美洲及加勒比海地区的原始关联较弱（β = .16–19），而中东及北非地区的关联为负（β = –.17–20）。然而，中东及北非地区的发现可归因于以色列作为一个显著异常值；当排除以色列后，正向关联变得非常微弱（β = .06–.10）。在多元回归分析中，这两项关联在控制地区固定效应、国土面积（取对数）、绝对纬度、平均海拔、地形崎岖度、法律起源、人均GDP（取对数）、民主程度以及族群碎片化（β = .29–30）后依然稳健。与先前研究一致，穆斯林比例（β = .24–58）以及中东军事干预指标（β = .21–58）均与西方国家中的伊斯兰主义暴力呈显著关联。