Math is Instrumental: An Analysis of Multi-Decade Space Flight Science Instrument Cost Performance

Abstract—The development and operation of scientific instruments is of critical importance to advancing our understanding of the universe and our own planet. Many Earth orbiting satellites carry advanced instruments which collect data on our atmosphere, oceans, and land. Other Earth orbiting satellites carry instruments to look out into our solar system to study the sun, moon, other planets and moons, asteroids, comets, or even other distant galaxies. Instruments flying on these satellites are often so sensitive they can measure individual photons or x-rays emitted from light years away. Finally, there are spacecraft enduring long journeys in deep space to distant celestial bodies carrying instruments to observe, touch, or even land and explore these distant regions of the solar system. Together, all these instruments support a wide range of scientific research which are used to advance all the major scientific disciplines of astrophysics, planetary science, heliophysics, and Earth science. This paper presents an analysis of trends in instrument development cost growth for over 100 launched scientific instruments, and examines potential factors that influence instrument cost growth. Comparisons and statistical tests were performed and specific factors that contribute to cost growth were examined and categorized by frequency of occurrence. This analysis shows areas to focus on if space agencies wish to more effectively plan and implement their instrument development projects.