Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?
收藏NBER2016-06-01 更新2025-01-04 收录
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https://www.nber.org/papers/w22349
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Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over-optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. For
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美国国家经济研究局创建时间：
2016-06-01
