Agricultural commodities: September quarter 2017

Overview \r\n The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2017-18, which updates the outlook released in June 2017. \r\n NOTE: Revision published 20th September 2017. \r\n\r\n\r\nKey Issues \r\n Commodity forecasts \r\n\r\n• The gross value of farm production is expected to decrease in 2017-18, reflecting an expected return to average seasonal yields following record production in 2016-17. \r\n• The value of farm exports in 2017-18 is expected to decline from 2016-17. Forecast higher export earnings for livestock and livestock products are not expected to offset the forecast fall in export earnings for crops. \r\n\r\n Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts \r\n\r\n In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 3.4 per cent in 2017 and 3.5 per cent in 2018. \r\n• Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.8 per cent in 2017-18. \r\n• The Australian dollar is assumed to average US77 cents in 2017-18, higher than the average of US75 cents in 2016-17. \r\n\r\n Articles and boxes on agricultural issues \r\n Recent trends in Australian meat consumption \r\n• Domestic consumers are the largest market for Australia's beef cattle, sheep, chicken and pig producers. The Australian market has changed markedly in the 30 years to 2016-17, with per person expenditure on meat declining despite an increase in per person consumption, particularly of chicken meat. \r\n• Meat consumption in Australia is forecast to average 108.5 kilograms per person in 2017-18, relatively unchanged from the 10 year average to 2016-17. \r\n\r\n Seasonal conditions in Australia \r\n• Following a drier than average start to winter 2017, late season rainfall has increased soil moisture levels, improved prospects for winter crops and benefited pasture growth in southern Australia. \r\n• It is likely that this rainfall has arrived too late to benefit winter crop production in northern New South Wales, southern Queensland and northern Western Australia. \r\n• The climate outlook for spring 2017 indicates that there is a roughly equal chance of above or below median rainfall for most of Australia \r\n\r\n Wheat quality explained \r\n• Wheat quality is measured by many parameters, including grain hardness, protein content, grain condition and milling characteristics. Quality attributes vary by wheat variety, and are affected by seasonal conditions during crop development, and harvest and post-harvest treatment. \r\n\r\n Changes to Australia's wool production by micron \r\n• Historically the bulk of Australia's wool clip was mid-range fine wool (in the 19.6 to 24.5 micron range). However, changes in export demand have resulted in bi-modal production. \r\n• Increased export demand for apparel wool has resulted in a higher proportion of superfine wool (less than 19.6 microns) as a percentage of the total wool clip. Increased demand for sheep meat has also resulted in a greater proportion of coarse wool (greater than 24.5 microns). \r\n\r\n Changes in Australian production data for 2015-16 onwards \r\n• In the 2015-16 Agricultural Census the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) raised the estimated value of agricultural operations (EVAO) used as the cut-off for the survey. The increased threshold will be applied to all subsequent Rural Environment and Agricultural Commodity Surveys, undertaken by the ABS. \r\n• The threshold for inclusion has increased from an EVAO of $5,000 to $40,000. This change reduces the number of agricultural businesses surveyed and therefore lowers estimates of agricultural land area, crop production and livestock numbers. \r\n• ABARES has incorporated the ABS figures in this edition of Agricultural commodities and will make all future agricultural forecasts on the basis of the higher cut-off. \r\n\r\n Understanding ABARES agricultural forecasts \r\n• ABARES price forecasting performance over 2016-17 is reviewed and some reasons why forecasts can differ from actual outcomes are discussed. \r\n

概述

本《农业大宗商品》2017年9月刊包含澳大利亚农业与资源经济科学局（Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, ABARES）对2017-2018财年澳大利亚主要农业大宗商品的最新展望，该内容更新了2017年6月发布的此前展望。
注：修订版于2017年9月20日发布。

核心议题

大宗商品预测

• 2017-2018财年澳大利亚农业生产总值预计将出现下滑，这反映出在2016-2017财年创下创纪录产量后，单产回归至平均季节性水平。
• 2017-2018财年农业出口产值预计较2016-2017财年有所下降。尽管畜禽及畜禽产品的出口收益预计有所提升，但无法抵消作物出口收益的预期降幅。

本次大宗商品预测所依据的经济假设

在编制本次农业大宗商品预测报告过程中，我们作出如下假设：
• 2017年全球经济增长率预计为3.4%，2018年为3.5%。
• 2017-2018财年澳大利亚经济增长率预计平均为2.8%。
• 2017-2018财年澳元汇率预计平均为1澳元兑换0.77美元，较2016-2017财年的平均汇率0.75美元有所上升。

农业议题专题文章与专栏

澳大利亚肉类消费近期趋势
• 国内消费者是澳大利亚肉牛、肉羊、肉鸡及生猪生产商的最大市场。截至2016-2017财年的30年间，澳大利亚国内肉类市场发生了显著变化：尽管人均肉类消费量（尤其是鸡肉消费量）有所提升，但人均肉类支出却出现下滑。
• 预计2017-2018财年澳大利亚人均肉类消费量平均为108.5公斤，与截至2016-2017财年的10年平均水平基本持平。

澳大利亚季节性气候状况
• 2017年冬季开局较往年干燥，但季末降雨提升了土壤墒情，改善了冬季作物的生长前景，并助力澳大利亚南部地区的牧草生长。
• 此次降雨可能为时已晚，无法惠及新南威尔士州北部、昆士兰州南部及西澳大利亚州北部的冬季作物生产。
• 2017年春季气候展望显示，澳大利亚大部分地区的降雨量达到或高于中位数、以及低于中位数的概率大致相当。

小麦品质解析
• 小麦品质可通过多项参数衡量，包括籽粒硬度、蛋白质含量、籽粒状态及研磨特性。品质属性因小麦品种而异，同时受作物生长季的气候条件、收获及收获后处理工艺的影响。

澳大利亚按纤维细度划分的羊毛生产结构变化
• 历史上，澳大利亚羊毛产量的主体为中细支羊毛（纤维细度范围为19.6至24.5微米）。但出口需求的变化已促使羊毛生产呈现双峰分布格局。
• 随着服装用羊毛出口需求的增长，超细支羊毛（纤维细度低于19.6微米）在羊毛总产量中的占比有所提升；同时，羊肉需求的增长也促使粗支羊毛（纤维细度高于24.5微米）的占比进一步扩大。

2015-2016财年起澳大利亚生产数据的调整
• 在2015-2016财年农业普查中，澳大利亚统计局（Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABS）提高了作为农业经营估算值（Estimated Value of Agricultural Operations, EVAO）调查门槛的数值。这一上调后的门槛将适用于澳大利亚统计局后续开展的所有农村环境与农业大宗商品调查。
• 纳入调查的门槛从EVAO 5000澳元提升至40000澳元。此次调整减少了接受调查的农业经营主体数量，因此也拉低了农业用地面积、作物产量及畜禽存栏量的估算值。
• 澳大利亚农业与资源经济科学局已在本版《农业大宗商品》报告中纳入了澳大利亚统计局的调整后数据，并将基于这一上调后的门槛开展未来所有的农业预测工作。

解读澳大利亚农业与资源经济科学局的农业预测
• 本报告回顾了澳大利亚农业与资源经济科学局在2016-2017财年的价格预测表现，并探讨了预测结果可能与实际产出存在偏差的若干原因。