2016 SoE Marine Chapter - Effectiveness of Management - Climate variability and climate change

The Marine chapter of the 2016 State of the Environment (SoE) report incorporates multiple expert templates developed from streams of marine data. This metadata record describes the Expert Assessment "Effectiveness of marine management of climate variability and climate change". The full Expert Assessment, including figures and tables (where provided), is attached to this record. Where available, the Data Stream(s) used to generate this Expert Assessment are accessible through the "On-line Resources" section of this record.

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DESCRIPTION OF THE PRESSURE BEING MANAGED, AND ITS IMPACT
Anthropogenic ocean warming, superimposed on natural climate variations – in particular El Niño–Southern Oscillation and decadal variability – and ocean acidification pose risks to Australia’s coral reef ecosystems, giant kelp and other habitats. In response, there have been significant shifts in the ranges of various invertebrates and fish. Recent reviews of climate change impacts and adaptation on Australia’s commercial marine fisheries and marine ecosystems discuss the implications for marine management.

On the Great Barrier Reef, rising summer sea temperatures and steadily increasing ocean acidity increase the risk of mass coral bleaching. The cumulative impacts of economic activities – port dredging and runoff of sediment, nutrients and fertiliser from agriculture, for example – cause coral reefs to become stressed and more prone to the effects of climate change. More broadly around Australia, ocean warming and changes in currents are affecting fisheries and aquaculture.

World-leading research on these risks is ongoing through Australian universities and research institutes and in consequence the understanding of physical processes is high. Understanding of the economic and cultural significance of the marine environment for Australia is lower, but considerable value is attributed to coastal regions in temperate and tropical Australia. Understanding of the management strategies required to combat the risks is lower still due at least in part to its complexity. Research is ongoing, but a greater investment in developing, implementing and monitoring strategies, monitoring and understanding change, and systematic acquisition and storage of data, is required.

DATA STREAM(S) USED IN EXPERT ASSESSMENT
The assessment is based on published literature – a list is provided in the attached Expert Assessment.

2016 SOE ASSESSMENT SUMMARY [see attached Expert Assessment for full details]
• Understanding of pressure: Understanding of climate variability and its management is reasonably high and improving with government funding for well-established and internationally-respected institutions.
• Planning associated with management of pressure: In-depth planning for icons such as the Great Barrier Reef continues, and commercial fisheries are aware of the need to plan around climate variability. Elsewhere efforts are more patchy.
• Input for informing management of pressure: Short-term funding cycles are a continuing threat to effective management for long-term goals and sustainability.
• Processes associated with developing, monitoring, and updating management: Management tools and approaches exist and in some cases are applied; stronger regulation is required for long-term environmental health.
• Outputs from management framework in place: Conflicting interests between economic development and the environment are leading to a gradual long-term environmental declines, which current management is not addressing.
• Outcomes of management framework in place: Further policy and management controls are required to address declining environmental health and emerging risks of climate change.

CHANGES SINCE 2011 SOE ASSESSMENT
Not specified. Review of additional literature has been conducted since 2011 SoE Assessment.

2016年《环境状况报告》（State of the Environment, SoE）的海洋章节纳入了多套基于海洋数据流（Data Stream）生成的专家模板。本元数据（metadata）记录旨在说明专家评估（Expert Assessment）报告《气候变率与气候变化的海洋管理成效》。本记录附件包含完整的专家评估报告，其中包括配图与附表（如已提供）。若可获取，用于生成该专家评估报告的数据流可通过本记录的“在线资源”板块查阅。

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## 待管理压力及其影响说明
人为活动导致的海洋升温，叠加自然气候变率——尤其是厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（El Niño–Southern Oscillation）与年代际变率——以及海洋酸化，正对澳大利亚的珊瑚礁生态系统、巨藻林及其他海洋生境构成威胁。受此影响，多种无脊椎动物与鱼类的分布范围发生了显著变化。近期针对澳大利亚商业海洋渔业及海洋生态系统的气候变化影响与适应措施的综述研究，探讨了其对海洋管理的启示。

在大堡礁（Great Barrier Reef）区域，夏季海温上升与海洋酸度持续升高加剧了大规模珊瑚白化的风险。经济活动的累积影响——例如港口疏浚、农业活动带来的沉积物、营养盐与化肥径流——会使珊瑚礁处于应激状态，更易受到气候变化的冲击。从澳大利亚全国范围来看，海洋升温与洋流变化正影响着渔业与水产养殖业。

澳大利亚各高校与科研机构正对上述风险开展全球领先的研究，因此目前对海洋物理过程的认知水平较高。但对澳大利亚海洋环境的经济与文化价值的认知水平相对偏低，不过温带与热带澳大利亚的沿海区域已被认定具有较高价值。而针对应对这些风险所需的管理策略的认知则更为薄弱，这在一定程度上源于其复杂性。相关研究仍在推进，但仍需加大投入，用于制定、实施与监测管理策略、监测并理解环境变化，以及系统性地获取与存储数据。

## 专家评估所用数据流
本评估基于已发表的文献，完整文献清单详见附件中的专家评估报告。

## 2016年SoE评估摘要（完整细节请参阅附件中的专家评估报告）
• 压力认知情况：得益于成熟且受国际认可的科研机构获得的政府资助，目前对气候变率及其管理的认知水平相对较高，且仍在持续提升。
• 压力管理相关规划：针对大堡礁这类标志性海洋区域的精细化规划仍在推进，商业渔业从业者也已意识到需围绕气候变率制定规划。但在其他区域，相关工作的开展较为零散。
• 压力管理的决策支撑：短期资金周期持续威胁着长期目标与可持续性导向的有效海洋管理工作。
• 管理策略的制定、监测与更新流程：现有海洋管理工具与方法，部分已得到应用；但为保障长期环境健康，仍需出台更严格的监管措施。
• 现有管理框架的产出：经济发展与环境保护之间的利益冲突正导致环境质量长期逐步退化，而当前的管理体系未能有效应对这一问题。
• 现有管理框架的成效：仍需出台更多政策与管理管控措施，以扭转环境质量下滑的趋势，并应对气候变化带来的新兴风险。

## 2011年SoE评估以来的变更情况
未明确说明。自2011年SoE评估以来，本报告已针对新增文献开展了综述工作。