Replication data for: Contested Territory, Strategic Rivalries and Conflict Escalation

After bringing together independent information on contested territory, rivalries, and conflict escalation (militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) and war), we examine the timing of the temporal ordering of these three processes. Contrary to conventional expectations, we find the contested territory-militarized dispute-rivalry ordering to be rare. Rivalries and contested territory often begin at the same time. Next, after setting up a unified model, we find the triadic combination of contested territory, contiguity, and strategic rivalry to be a strong explanatory combination for MIDs and war over time (1919–1992). We also control for other explanatory factors such as mixed regime type and major power status. These findings provide strong support for arguments such as Vasquez's steps-to-war theory that specify these sources of conflict escalation.在整合有关有争议领土、国家间敌对关系以及冲突升级（含国家间军事化争端（militarized interstate disputes, MIDs）与战争）的独立数据后，我们针对上述三类进程的时间先后顺序展开了时序分析。与既有主流预期相悖的是，我们发现「有争议领土→国家间军事化争端→敌对关系」的时间序列极为罕见，且敌对关系与有争议领土争端往往同时发端。随后，我们构建了统一分析模型，结果显示：有争议领土、地理接壤与战略敌对关系的三元组合，对1919年至1992年间的国家间军事化争端与战争具有极强的解释力。我们同时纳入混合政体类型、大国地位等其他解释变量以控制其影响。上述研究结论为瓦斯克斯的战争升级阶梯理论等明确阐释冲突升级根源的学术主张提供了坚实的实证支撑。