Elephant population survey counts across southern Africa protected areas

The influence of protected areas on the growth of African savannah
elephant populations is inadequately known. Across southern Africa,
elephant numbers grew at 0.16% annually for the past quarter century.
Locally, much depends on metapopulation dynamics — the size and
connections of individual populations. Population numbers in large,
connected and strictly protected areas typically increased, were less
variable from year to year, and suffered less from poaching. Conversely,
populations in buffer areas that are less protected but still connected
have more variation in growth from year to year. Buffer areas also
differed more in their growth rates, likely due to more threats and
dispersal opportunities in the face of such dangers. Isolated populations
showed consistently high growth due to a lack of emigration. This suggests
that “fortress” conservation generally maintains high growth, while
anthropogenic-driven source-sink dynamics within connected conservation
clusters drive stability in core areas and variability in buffers.