Assessing bite force estimates in extinct mammals and archosaurs using phylogenetic predictions

Bite force is an ecologically important biomechanical performance measure is informative in inferring the ecology of extinct taxa. However, biomechanical modelling to estimate bite force is associated with some level of uncertainty. Here, I assess the accuracy of bite force estimates in extinct taxa using a Bayesian phylogenetic prediction model. I first fitted a phylogenetic regression model on a training set comprising extant data. The model predicts bite force from body mass and skull width while accounting for differences owning to biting position. The posterior predictive model has a 93% prediction accuracy as evaluated through leave-one-out cross-validation. I then predicted bite force in 37 species of extinct mammals and archosaurs from the posterior distribution of predictive models. Biomechanically estimated bite forces fall within the posterior predictive distributions for all except four species of extinct taxa and are thus as accurate as that predicted from body size and sku...咬合力是一项在生态学领域具有重要价值的生物力学性能指标，可为推断已灭绝类群的生态特征提供有效依据。然而，用于估算咬合力的生物力学建模往往存在一定程度的不确定性。本研究采用贝叶斯系统发育预测模型（Bayesian phylogenetic prediction model），评估已灭绝类群咬合力估算结果的准确性。首先，本研究基于包含现生类群数据的训练集构建了系统发育回归模型，该模型以体重和头骨宽度为自变量预测咬合力，同时校正因咬合位置差异带来的影响。通过留一法交叉验证评估可知，该后验预测模型的预测准确率可达93%。随后，本研究基于预测模型的后验分布，对37种已灭绝的哺乳类和主龙类（archosaurs）的咬合力进行了预测。除4种已灭绝类群外，生物力学估算的咬合力均落在后验预测分布范围内，因此其准确性与基于体型和头骨参数预测的结果相当……