Data for: Identifying fiscal inflation

Abstract of associated article: Fiscal theorists warn about the risk of future inflation as a consequence of fiscal imbalances in the US. Because actual inflation remains historically low and data on inflation expectations do not corroborate such risks, warnings for fiscal inflation are often ignored in policy and academic circles. This paper shows that a canonical NK-DSGE model enables identifying an anticipated component of inflation expectations that is closely related to fiscal policy. Estimation results suggest that fiscal inflation concerns have induced a 1.6%-points increase in long-run inflation since 2001. The model also rationalizes why data on inflation expectations do not reveal such concerns outright.

相关文章摘要：财政理论家警示，美国财政失衡可能导致未来通货膨胀的风险。鉴于实际通货膨胀率保持历史低位，且关于通货膨胀预期的数据并未证实此类风险，政策制定者和学术界对财政通货膨胀的警告往往被忽视。本研究表明，标准的NK-DSGE模型能够识别与财政政策密切相关的前瞻性通货膨胀预期成分。估计结果显示，自2001年以来，财政通货膨胀的担忧引发了长期通货膨胀率上升1.6个百分点。该模型亦合理解释了为何通货膨胀预期的数据未能直接揭示此类担忧。