Projected future autumn leaf phenology of deciduous trees

Autumn leaf phenology (i.e. leaf colouring or leaf senescence) marks the end of the growing season, during which trees assimilate atmospheric CO2. Since autumn leaf phenology responds to climatic conditions, climate change affects the length of the growing season. Thus, autumn phenology is often modelled to assess possible climate change effects on future CO2 mitigating capacities and species compositions of forests.
Here, we give access to the entire dataset of projected autumn phenology analyzed in Meier and Bigler (2023). The data was derived from different combinations of 21 process-oriented phenology models, 5 optimization algorithms, ≥7 sampling procedures, and 26 climate model chains from two representative concentration pathways. The dataset contains the average autumn phenology per site and for the years 2080-2099 according to each combination that led to a successful calibration. Calibration and validation were based on >45 000 observations for common beech (Fagus sylvatica..., Autumn leaf phenology was projected to the years 2080-2099 with different process-oriented models that were calibrated as either site- or species-specific models. The calibrations differed in the choice of optimization algorithms and choice of sampling procedures. The models werte driven with downscaled projected climate data from 16 and 10 different climate model chains based on the representative concetration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, which we derived from the CMIP5-based CORDEX-EUR-11 datasets (Riahi et al. 2011, Thomson et al. 2011, Jacob et al. 2014).
The CORDEX-EUR-11 data was obtained from the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC) at ETH Zurich on August 2021.
For more detailed information consult the original publication Meier and Bigler (2023).
References
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer, L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Deque, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A.,..., The Rds files in the zip folders can be opened in the software R (R Core Team, 2022) with the base function readRDS().
R Core Team (2022). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing. https://www.r-project.org/
, # Projected autumn leaf phenology of deciduous trees

Autumn leaf phenology was projected to the years 2080-2099 with different process-oriented models that were calibrated as either site- or species-specific models. The calibrations differed in the choice of optimization algorithms and choice of sampling procedures. The models werte driven with downscaled projected climate data from 16 and 10 different climate model chains based on the representative concetration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, which we derived from the CMIP5-based CORDEX-EUR-11 datasets (Riahi et al. 2011, Thomson et al. 2011, Jacob et al. 2014).
For more detailed information consult the original publication Meier and Bigler (2023).

Please cite as
Meier, M., & Bigler, C. (2023). Process-oriented models of autumn leaf phenology: Ways to sound calibration and implications of uncertain projections. *Geoscientific Model Development*, *16*(23), 7171–7201.

References
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A....