Replication Data for: Demographics and Financial Crises — An Early Warning System

Replication package for 'Demographics and Financial Crises' by Brian Peters (2026). Tests whether demographic structure predicts financial crisis risk using logit models and early warning system (EWS) frameworks. Key finding: rapid demographic transitions (fast-aging populations) predict banking and currency crises, with the mechanism operating through asset price booms during the demographic dividend phase followed by busts.布莱恩·彼得斯（Brian Peters）2026年发表的《人口结构与金融危机（Demographics and Financial Crises）》复刻研究包。该研究借助logit模型与预警系统（Early Warning System, EWS）框架，检验人口结构是否可预测金融危机风险。核心研究结论显示：快速的人口结构转型（即快速老龄化的人口结构）能够预测银行业危机与货币危机，其作用机制为在人口红利阶段催生资产价格暴涨，随后出现资产价格崩盘。