Table 1_Media reports amplify market risk in pork prices: consumer online attention mediation and policy interventions under major animal epidemics.docx

IntroductionFrequent occurrences of major animal epidemic events often trigger severe fluctuations in pork market prices. As the world’s largest producer, importer, and consumer of pork, China faces strong negative shocks to its swine production sector from such epidemics. In the new media era, media reports significantly accelerate the speed and broaden the scope of information dissemination and emotional contagion regarding major animal epidemics. These reports transmit epidemic risk signals to the public, generating a social amplification effect on perceived risks, which may influence both consumers’ pork purchasing decisions and farmers’ production behaviors. Consequently, shifts in pork market supply and demand exacerbate pork price volatility.
MethodsThis study adopts the perspectives of information economics and risk amplification and utilizes the provincial-level panel data from China spanning January 2011 to December 2022. By applying the fixed effect model, threshold effect model, and mediating effect model, it investigates the mechanism by which media reports on major animal epidemics affect pork price volatility.
ResultsMedia reports transmit major animal epidemic risk signals to the public, significantly magnifying the actual risks of major animal epidemics and exacerbating pork price volatility, with this effect being more pronounced in major consumption regions. Mechanistically, consumer online attention partially mediates the relationship between media reports on major animal epidemics and pork price volatility, demonstrating greater significance in major production regions; this mediating effect exhibits a single-threshold characteristic, wherein surpassing a critical threshold of consumer online attention mitigates the price-amplifying impact of media reports. Further analysis identifies a moderating effect of swine epidemic prevention and control policies within this mediating pathway, significantly weakening the exacerbating influence of media reports on pork price volatility.
DiscussionStrengthening media oversight mechanisms, rationally guiding consumer online attention, and promptly implementing policy levers emerge as effective pathways to stabilize pork markets.