Climate informed modelling of landscape managed threatened species - Reptiles

Modelling of landscape capacity for 75 landscape-managed NSW threatened species. \r\n\r\nLandscape capacity is a measure of how usable habitat is for supporting populations based on the quality of habitat and how easily species can move across the landscape to access sufficient resources to support a population. This project maps climate-informed landscape capacity. This mapping shows how well NSW landscapes can support fauna populations into future climate. The location of climate refugia are identified. These are areas that support species populations through time, from pre-industrial times and into the future.\r\n\r\nThe methods and descriptions of outputs are provided in the [project report](https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/publications/persistence-landscapes-project).\r\n\r\n[Two page species forecasts](https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/d44cb0df-0242-4db3-9126-8c26aba7f80a/resource/27c36e75-690e-4fcd-88b4-b89bbdfafeba/download/plp_reportcards_final2025.pdf) summarise results for each species.\r\n\r\nEach species model is projected into NARCliM (v1.0) climate futures. The dataset comprises: individual models for 1750, 2000, 2030 and 2070 epochs; 'consensus' maps across 12 climate models for 2070; and multi-species refugia and landscape capacity across time maps ([for the 75 threatened species](https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/climate-informed-plp-modelling/resource/edf6e375-57c5-4f55-93f0-422a0af1900c), and also including site-managed species [here](https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/climate-informed-plp-modelling/resource/c76d5cd9-b3d1-4622-a4d5-55aed553e38b)). \r\n\r\nThe individual species geotiff files are grouped into zip files which are large and may take considerable time to download.\r\n\r\nThese resources are outputs of the Persistence in the Landscape Project (PLP). \r\n\r\nThis item contains a zip file of landscape capacity rasters for the following reptile species, for pre-industrial (1750), 2000, 2030 and 2070, based on NARCliM 1.0 projections:\r\n\r\n- _Aprasia parapulchella_, **Pink-tailed Legless Lizard**\r\n- _Brachyurophis fasciolatus_, **Narrow-banded Snake**\r\n- _Coeranoscincus reticulatus_, **Three-toed Snake-tooth Skink**\r\n- _Delma impar_, **Striped Legless Lizard**\r\n- _Harrisoniascincus zia_, **Rainforest Cool-skink**\r\n- _Hoplocephalus bitorquatus_, **Pale-headed Snake**\r\n- _Hoplocephalus stephensii_, **Stephens' Banded Snake**\r\n- _Silvascincus tryoni_, **Tryon's Skink**\r\n- _Varanus rosenbergi_, **Rosenberg's Goanna**\r\n

新南威尔士州（New South Wales，简称NSW）75种受景观管理的濒危物种的景观承载力（landscape capacity）建模研究。

景观承载力是基于栖息地质量，结合物种跨景观移动以获取足够种群支撑资源的难易程度，衡量栖息地可支撑种群存续能力的指标。本项目构建了气候适配性景观承载力空间分布图，用以展示新南威尔士州的景观在未来气候情境下支撑动物种群的能力，并识别出气候避难所（climate refugia）的分布位置——这类区域可在工业革命前至今乃至未来长期支撑物种种群存续。

本项目的研究方法与成果说明详见[项目报告](https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/publications/persistence-landscapes-project)。

[两页版物种预测报告](https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/d44cb0df-0242-4db3-9126-8c26aba7f80a/resource/27c36e75-690e-4fcd-88b4-b89bbdfafeba/download/plp_reportcards_final2025.pdf)汇总了各物种的研究结果。

所有物种模型均基于NARCliM（v1.0）未来气候情景进行投影。本数据集包含：对应1750年、2000年、2030年及2070年四个时间节点的单物种模型；基于12个气候模型整合得到的2070年共识（consensus）分布图；以及多物种气候避难所与时序景观承载力空间分布图[针对75种濒危物种](https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/climate-informed-plp-modelling/resource/edf6e375-57c5-4f55-93f0-422a0af1900c)，包含场地管理物种的分布图可[在此获取](https://datasets.seed.nsw.gov.au/dataset/climate-informed-plp-modelling/resource/c76d5cd9-b3d1-4622-a4d5-55aed553e38b)。

单物种的GeoTIFF文件已打包为压缩包，文件体积较大，下载可能耗时较长。

本数据集为景观存续项目（Persistence in the Landscape Project，简称PLP）的研究成果。

本数据集包含基于NARCliM 1.0气候情景投影得到的下述爬行动物物种的景观承载力栅格数据压缩包，时间节点涵盖工业革命前（1750年）、2000年、2030年及2070年：
- 粉尾无腿蜥蜴（_Aprasia parapulchella_）
- 窄带蛇（_Brachyurophis fasciolatus_）
- 三指蛇齿石龙子（_Coeranoscincus reticulatus_）
- 条纹无腿蜥蜴（_Delma impar_）
- 雨林凉石龙子（_Harrisoniascincus zia_）
- 白头蛇（_Hoplocephalus bitorquatus_）
- 斯蒂芬氏带蛇（_Hoplocephalus stephensii_）
- 特赖恩石龙子（_Silvascincus tryoni_）
- 罗森贝格巨蜥（_Varanus rosenbergi_）