Species' traits modulate rapid changes in flight time in high-Arctic muscid flies under climate change

Insects are experiencing notable phenological shifts due to climate
change, with substantial interspecific variability. However, our
understanding is limited by a shortage of long-term studies, beyond
Lepidoptera. This study presents a hierarchical modeling framework to
analyze the phenological distribution of eleven muscid fly species across
three vegetation types over 18 years (1996 - 2014) in Zackenberg,
Northeast Greenland. We examined species-specific changes in phenology and
assessed ecological traits for explaining interspecific variation.
Additionally, we investigated the associations between phenological shifts
and timing of snowmelt and temperature. We found consistent trends of
earlier flight activity and interspecific variation in responses, with
smaller species shifting their end of the season activity at faster rates
than larger species. Flight activity was strongly associated with the
timing of snowmelt, while warming was linked to an earlier end of the
flight season. Late-active species exhibited more pronounced shifts in
response to climate variations than early-active species. This study
highlights the species-specific climate sensitivity of high-Arctic muscid
flies potentially having demographic effects if temporal overlaps among
interacting species change. We advocate for prioritizing species-specific
insect population studies, ideally analyzed within the context of
interacting species, to understand better and address disparities in
responses to climate change.