Replication Data for: Drowned out by the noise? The downstream mobilisation effects of party campaigning between local and general elections

Campaign experiments often report positive effects on voter turnout. But do these effects endure at subsequent elections? Existing studies provide mixed evidence on downstream effects, and the rate at which initial mobilisation effects decay. This paper contributes to existing research by presenting a pre-registered analysis of downstream effects in a unique experimental setting. I test whether effects from a UK partisan experiment in a low turnout election in May 2017 persisted at the high turnout general election a month later. The findings show that in this short space of time, the original turnout effects virtually disappeared, suggesting that downstream effects resulting from campaign experiments can be quickly subsumed by the high saliency of subsequent elections.竞选实验通常会对选民投票率产生积极影响。但这类效应是否会在后续选举中持续留存？现有研究针对此类下游效应以及初始动员效应的衰减速率，所提供的证据存在分歧。本文依托独特的实验场景开展预注册分析（pre-registered analysis），为现有相关研究补充了新的实证证据。本研究检验了2017年5月英国一场低投票率选举中的党派竞选实验所产生的效应，是否在一个月后举行的高投票率大选中得以延续。研究结果显示，在短短一个月的时间跨度内，初始的投票率效应几乎完全消失，这表明竞选实验所产生的下游效应，可迅速被后续选举的高关注度所覆盖。