Early prediction of postoperative liver dysfunction and clinical outcome using antithrombin III-activity

Background and aims
Antithrombin III (ATIII) has been reported to be associated with liver pathologies and was shown to predict outcome in patients undergoing liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma. We now aimed to assess whether perioperative ATIII-activity could predict postoperative outcome in patients without underlying liver disease, as well as in a routine clinical setting of patients undergoing hepatic resection.
Methods
ATIII-activity was evaluated preoperatively and on the first (POD1) and fifth day after liver resection in a retrospective evaluation cohort of 228 colorectal cancer patients with liver metastasis (mCRC). We further aimed to prospectively validate our results in a set of 177 consecutive patients undergoing hepatic resection.
Results
Patients developing postoperative liver dysfunction (LD) had a more pronounced postoperative decrease in ATIII-activity (P<0.001). ATIII-activity on POD1 significantly predicted postoperative LD (P<0.001, AUC = 84.4%) and remained independent upon multivariable analysis. A cut-off value of 61.5% ATIII-activity was determined using ROC analysis. This cut-off was vital to identify high-risk patients for postoperative LD, morbidity, severe morbidity and mortality (P<0.001, respectively) with a highly accurate negative predictive value of 97%, which could be confirmed for LD (P<0.001) and mortality (P = 0.014) in our independent validation cohort. Further, mCRC patients below our cut-off suffered from a significantly decreased overall survival (OS) at 1 and 3 years after surgery (P = 0.011, P = 0.025).
Conclusions
The routine laboratory parameter ATIII-activity on POD1 independently predicted postoperative LD and was associated with clinical outcome. Patients with a postoperative ATIII-activity <61.5% might benefit from close monitoring and timely initiation of supportive therapy.
Trial registration
ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01700231