Integrating demography and distribution modelling for the iconic Leontopodium alpinum Colm. in the Romanian Carpathians

Both climate change and human exploitation are major threats to plant life in mountain environments. One species that may be particularly sensitive to both of these stressors is the iconic alpine flower edelweiss (Leontopodium alpinum Colm.). Its populations have declined across Europe due to over-collection for its highly prized flowers. Edelweiss is still subject to harvesting across the Romanian Carpathians but no study has measured to what extent populations are vulnerable to anthropogenic change. Here we estimated the effects of climate and human disturbance on the fitness of edelweiss. We combined demographic measurements with predictions of future range distribution under climate change to assess the viability of populations across Romania. We found that per-capita and per-area seed number and seed mass were similarly promoted by both favourable environmental conditions, represented by rugged landscapes with relatively cold winters and wet summers, and reduced exposure to...气候变化与人类开发活动，均为山地生态系统中植物生存的主要威胁因素。对这两类胁迫均尤为敏感的极具代表性的高山花卉，是雪绒花（edelweiss, Leontopodium alpinum Colm.）。由于其极具观赏价值的花株被过度采集，欧洲全境的雪绒花种群数量均出现下降。目前罗马尼亚喀尔巴阡山脉区域仍存在雪绒花采收行为，但尚无研究量化评估该种群在多大程度上易受人为活动带来的环境变化影响。 本研究针对气候与人为干扰对雪绒花适合度的影响展开量化评估。我们将种群统计监测数据与气候变化情景下的未来分布范围预测相结合，以此评估罗马尼亚全境雪绒花种群的生存可行性。 研究结果显示，冬季寒冷、夏季湿润的崎岖地形这类有利环境条件，以及人为干扰暴露程度的降低，均可同等提升雪绒花的单株种子数、单位面积种子产量与种子质量。