Comparison of atmospheric refractivity estimation methods and their influence on radar wave propagation predictions

Environmental predictions in the marine atmospheric surface layer (MASL) are imperative to optimize X-band radar system performance in marine environments.  Evaporation ducts (ED) lead to anomalous propagation where characterization of EDs in the MASL occurs primarily through two methods: in-situ measurements and numerical modeling. This study investigates differences in co-located and synchronous refractivity estimations from the CASPER-East campaign. Propagation predictions are generated for refractive profiles from in-situ measurements, Monin-Obukov boundary layer similarity theory, and numerical weather prediction forecasts. Variations in evaporation duct height (EDH) are found to be a primary driver of differences in propagation between the estimated refractivity profiles, where location of the EDH relative to the transmitter changes the sensitivity of propagation predictions to EDH estimates. Differences in propagation are large when EDH estimates span the transmitter height and t...