2030 Business as Usual (BAU) land cover scenario for Pemba island, Zanzibar

The aim of the map was to identify areas which should be targeted for future conservation policy. Map layer demonstrates modelling outputs for a 2030 Business as Usual Scenario for the island of Pemba Zanzibar. Two historical <i>Corpencious</i> land cover maps for the years 2015 and 2017 were analyzed in the land change modeler module in TerrSet (2020) to detect land cover transitions. <font face='Avenir Next W01, Avenir Next W00, Avenir Next, Avenir, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif'><span style='font-size:16px;'>Community-based workshops were held in Macho Mane, Chumbageni, Mji Mpya, Mfikiwa and Pujini in 2019 to investigate perceived land cover transitions and identify drivers. Where possible the explanatory</span></font> variables which local communities' thought might be associated with such changes were used to help explain such changes using multi-perceptron analysis. The output of this analysis was used to create a projection of land cover for the year 2030, which showed a potential increase in sea water submergence, wetland areas and built-up land, alongside a decrease in permanent waterbodies and forested spaces. More details about this project can be found here: <a href='https://www.york.ac.uk/africa-network/phd_projects/rebecca_newman/' rel='nofollow ugc'>Rebecca Newman - Africa Network at York, University of York</a>.