Australia's plantation log supply 2015-2059

Overview \r\nAustralia's plantation log supply 2015-2059 report presents forecasts of sawlog and pulplog volumes available from softwood and hardwood plantations. Changes in log availability have important implications for Australia's rural economies; the size, type and geographical location of wood and paper product manufacturing industries; the national supply of wood products; Australia's trade balance; and Australia's export income. \r\n\r\n This report has been prepared by ABARES under the auspices of the National Plantation Inventory--a program that has collected data and reported on plantations established primarily for wood production in Australia since 1993. Comprehensive plantation log availability forecast reports are published every five years and Australia's plantation log supply 2015-2059 is the fifth log supply report. \r\n\r\n In this report, forecasts are presented for softwood and hardwood sawlog and pulplog volumes by National Plantation Inventory region, based on the combination of forecasts supplied by plantation owners and managers through a survey and ABARES modelled forecasts. For the modelled forecasts, ABARES did not account for any future changes in social, economic or environmental parameters. \r\n\r\n Key Points \r\n• The potential log availability from Australia's commercial plantation estate is forecast to increase to an annual average of 29.7 million cubic metres in the 2015-19 period, followed by a decline to an annual average of 27.0 million cubic metres a year for the 2020-24 period. The 2015 to 2059 average total plantation log availability forecast is 10 per cent lower in this report, compared with the 2012 log supply report; the average hardwood log availability forecast is 21 per cent lower and the average softwood log availability forecast is 2 per cent lower. \r\n• The majority of the decline in total log availability is because the expected yield from hardwood plantations is forecast to decline as plantations of low commerciality are not replanted and some lease agreements with landholders are not renewed. \r\n• ABARES estimates that the total commercial plantation estate may decrease by around 80 000 to 100 000 hectares over the next 10 to 15 years as new plantation establishment will not be sufficient to offset removals of low commerciality plantations unless there are new drivers to expand or maintain the current plantation estate. \r\n

概述
《2015-2059年澳大利亚人工林原木供应报告》对软木与硬木人工林可产出的锯材原木与制浆原木数量进行了预测。原木可供应量的变化，对澳大利亚乡村经济、木材与纸制品制造业的规模、品类及地理布局、全国木材产品供应、澳大利亚贸易收支以及出口收入均具有重要影响。

本报告由澳大利亚农业与资源经济科学局（ABARES）依托国家人工林清查（National Plantation Inventory）项目编制。该项目自1993年起便开始收集并发布澳大利亚主要用于木材生产的人工林相关数据。该机构每五年发布一次全面的人工林原木可供应量预测报告，本次《2015-2059年澳大利亚人工林原木供应报告》为第五份原木供应专项报告。

本报告以国家人工林清查分区为单元，结合人工林所有者与管理者通过调研提交的预测数据，以及澳大利亚农业与资源经济科学局（ABARES）的模型预测结果，对软木、硬木的锯材原木与制浆原木产量进行了预测。需说明的是，模型预测部分未考虑未来社会、经济或环境参数的任何变化。

核心要点
• 澳大利亚商业人工林基地的潜在原木可供应量预计将在2015-2019年间增长至年均2970万立方米，随后在2020-2024年间回落至年均2700万立方米。与2012年原木供应报告相比，本报告中2015-2059年的人工林原木总可供应量年均预测值降低10%；其中硬木原木年均可供应量预测值降低21%，软木原木年均可供应量预测值降低2%。
• 原木总可供应量下降的主要原因是：低商业价值人工林不再进行更新造林，且部分与土地所有者的租赁协议未获续约，预计硬木人工林的产量将随之下降。
• 澳大利亚农业与资源经济科学局（ABARES）预计，未来10至15年内，澳大利亚商业人工林总面积或将减少8万至10万公顷；若没有新的驱动力来扩张或维持现有人工林规模，新增人工林面积将不足以抵消低商业价值人工林的采伐移除量。