Data from: Early snowmelt projected to cause population decline in a subalpine plant

How climate change influences the dynamics of plant populations is not
well understood, as few plant studies have measured responses of vital
rates to climatic variables and modeled the impact on population growth. I
used 25 years of demographic data to analyze how survival, growth, and
fecundity respond to date of spring snow melt for a subalpine plant.
Fecundity was estimated by seed production (over 15 years) and also
divided into flower number, fruit set, seeds per fruit, and escape from
seed predation. Despite no apparent effects on flower number, plants
produced more seeds in years with later snowmelt. Survival and probability
of flowering were reduced by early snow melt in the previous year. Based
on demographic models, earlier snowmelt with warming is expected to lead
to negative population growth, driven especially by changes in seedling
establishment and seed production. These results provide a rare example of
how climate change is expected to influence the dynamics of a plant
population. They furthermore illustrate the potential for strong
population impacts even in the absence of more commonly reported visual
signs, such as earlier blooming or reduced floral display in early melting
years.