Replication data for: Does Survey Participation Increase Voter Turnout? Re-examining the Hawthorne Effect in the Swedish National Election Studies

A Hawthorne effect found in election studies is that pre-election survey participation increases voter turnout. Using the Swedish National Election Studies, Granberg and Holmberg (1992) showed evidence in support of this effect. However, their findings have been criticized and more recent studies have failed to find any treatment effect of pre-election survey participation (cf. Mann 2005). I re-examine an updated version of Granberg and Holmberg’s time series cumulative data file covering eight additional election studies (in total 14 election studies from 1960 to 2010). These studies have an experimental component since half of the sample is randomly assigned to be interviewed before the election and the other half to be interviewed after the election. By comparing validated turnout in the pre-election sample with the post-election sample it is possible to estimate the causal effect of survey participation on voter turnout. The results show that participating in the pre-election survey indeed has a significant and positive effect on voter turnout. Moreover, this paper evaluates whether the treatment effect is unevenly distributed in the population. Results show that citizens with a low propensity to vote are more affected by taking part in election studies than citizens with a high propensity to vote. In addition, the study estimates the long-term effects of survey participation. Results show that participating in an election survey can have significant effects on voter turnout several years later.选举研究中发现的霍桑效应（Hawthorne effect）指，选举前参与调查会提升选民投票率。格兰伯格（Granberg）与霍尔姆贝里（Holmberg）于1992年借助瑞典全国选举研究（Swedish National Election Studies）数据集，为该效应提供了实证支撑。不过，其研究结论遭到学界质疑，后续多项研究均未能发现选举前参与调查的处理效应（treatment effect，参见Mann 2005）。本文重新检验了格兰伯格与霍尔姆贝里时序累积数据文件的更新版本，该版本新增8项选举研究，使样本覆盖1960年至2010年间总计14项选举研究。该系列研究包含实验设计：将全部样本随机划分为两组，半数在选举前接受访谈，另一半在选举后接受访谈。通过对比选举前样本与选举后样本的验证投票率，可估算参与调查对选民投票率的因果效应。研究结果显示，参与选举前调查确实对选民投票率存在显著的正向影响。此外，本文还检验了处理效应在人群中的分布异质性，结果表明，相较于投票意愿较高的选民，投票意愿较低的公民参与选举调查所受的影响更为显著。除此之外，本文还估算了参与调查的长期效应，结果显示，参与选举调查可在数年后仍对选民投票率产生显著影响。