Global maps of current (1979-2013) and future (2061-2080) habitat suitability probability for 1,485 European endemic plant species

Aims: The rapid increase in the number of species that have naturalized beyond their native range is among the most apparent features of the Anthropocene. How alien species will respond to other processes of future global changes is an emerging concern and remains largely misunderstood. We therefore ask whether naturalized species will respond to climate and land-use change differently than those species not yet naturalized anywhere in the world.

Location: Global

Methods: We investigated future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to Europe that are either naturalized (n = 272) or not yet naturalized (1,213) outside of Europe. Potential ranges were estimated based on projections of species distribution models using 20 future climate-change scenarios. We mapped current and future global centres of naturalization risk. We also analyzed expected changes in latitudinal, elevational and areal extent of species’ potential alien ranges.

Results: We sh...