From boom to bust: real commodity prices from 1850

This is the annual update of Jacks, D.S. (2019), “From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run.” Cliometrica 13(2), 201-220. It analyses an accompanying dataset on 42 commodities, comprising 7.43 trillion USD worth of production in 2019 and spanning the years from 1850 to 2023. It also presents evidence on three commodity price indices using various weighting schemes for the period from 1900 to 2023. Applying weights drawn from the value of production in 1975, real commodity prices are estimated to have increased by 41.13% (or 0.28% per annum) from 1900, 47.42% (or 0.53% per annum) from 1950, and 16.01% (or 0.31% per annum) from 1975. The data also indicates the presence of three complete commodity price cycles, entailing multi-year positive deviations from the long-run trend. The most recently completed cycle began in 1996, reached its peak in 2010, and is now near its trough.