Aid, Violence, and Intervention: Three Essays on the Transnational Implications of Refugee Policy

This collection of papers develops theory and empirical evidence to respond to three pressing questions on the implications of refugee policy. The first paper explains how large population flows can cause violence in their destination. I present evidence that large, unexpected migrant influxes into countries with ongoing civil wars cause violence to increase. Some of this increase in violence operates through food price increases. I theorize that a large population flow operates like a food demand shock, essentially decreasing real wages, which creates an opportunity for rebel recruitment. The second article argues that refugee policy can be used strategically to achieve foreign policy goals. Drawing on case evidence from fieldwork in East Africa, I identify how border refugee camps can be useful to rebel groups and formalize this as technology of war. I demonstrate how prospects for coordination in the region and the usefulness of a border camp to rebels can explain refugee policy selection. The third article investigates whether or not foreign aid sent to a country with an ongoing civil war can reduce conflict driven migration. I find initial evidence that the impact of aid on conflict-driven migration depends on the available production technology in the country receiving aid. I theorize that aid increases strategic investment in war. It is however possible that development aid will increase production enough to offset violence, thereby decreasing migration. The reduction of migration critically depends on the relative efficiency of fighting to producing for both parties in a civil war. The dissertation, as a whole, explores the political economy of conflict-driven migration and clarifies the channels through which policy responses to migration impact conflict, development, and subsequent migration.