Carreon et al. Modeling the spatial distribution of dung beetle species with different nesting strategies and body sizes under climate change scenarios

Previous studies have used climate niche models (CNM) to predict shifts in the distribution of suitable habitats of dung beetles without considering whether the effects of climate change vary depending on their nesting strategy (telecoprids, paracoprids and endocoprids) and body size. In this study, we used CNM to estimate the future distribution of climatically suitable habitats for 15 of dung beetle species that differ in these features. We focused on the near-term climate change predictions (period 2041–2060) in the Americas, hypothesizing that climatically suitable will decrease for all species, but the magnitude of these negative effects will be greater for large-sized species than for small-sized ones. The resulting models are provided in a KMZ file "Climate Niche Models". For each species, we included a map whose pixels indicate a probability of occurrence under the current climate and four other maps indicating the probability of occurrence under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP). In all maps, Highly Suitable Habitats (HSH) are indicated in green, Moderate Suitable Habitats (MSH) in yellow and Unsuitable Habitats (UH) as empty area.既往研究曾采用气候生态位模型（CNM）预测蜣螂适宜栖息地分布的变化，但未考虑气候变化的影响是否会因蜣螂的筑巢策略（滚粪型蜣螂（telecoprids）、掘穴型蜣螂（paracoprids）与内栖型蜣螂（endocoprids））及体型大小而存在差异。本研究采用气候生态位模型（CNM），针对上述筑巢策略与体型特征存在差异的15种蜣螂，估算其气候适宜栖息地的未来分布格局。本研究聚焦美洲地区2041-2060年的近期气候变化预测情景，提出研究假设：所有物种的气候适宜栖息地面积均会缩减，但大型物种所受负面影响的程度将高于小型物种。本研究生成的模型已整理至名为"Climate Niche Models"的KMZ文件中。针对每个物种，本研究提供了1张反映当前气候下物种发生概率的栅格地图，以及4张分别对应4种共享社会经济路径（SSP）下物种发生概率的栅格地图。所有地图中，高度适宜栖息地（HSH）以绿色标注，中度适宜栖息地（MSH）以黄色标注，非适宜栖息地（UH）以空白区域表示。