Southern Democracy in the Long Run: A Systemic Analysis

This paper extends the leadership-long cycle systemic perspective, which so far has tended to focus on major power, rise-and-decline dynamics and global war, to explain Southern democratization. Unlike studies of democratization at the national level of analysis, we conduct a systemic level analysis, with a specific focus on the global South. Our extension the leadership-long cycle perspective predicts that Southern democracy will be driven, in part, by systemic leadership and world economic growth. Other variables also may have a role in Southern democratization, with levels of Southern economic development, Southern conflict, and Southern democratic inertia serving as controls in our model. The leadership-long cycle approach requires one to open the time window of observation to include longer time periods than is typically customary. Using data from 1870 to 1992, the empirical analysis strongly supports our theory. Increases in the level of systemic leadership and the growth rate of the world economy promote Southern democratization. Viewed within the context of our perspective, these empirical results suggest that national democratization processes are subject to global structural processes operating at the larger international system level.本文拓展了领导长周期系统视角（Leadership-Long Cycle Systemic Perspective）——该视角此前多聚焦于大国兴衰动态与全球战争——以解析南方国家民主化进程。不同于以民族国家层面为分析单元的既有民主化研究，本文采用系统层面分析框架，并将研究焦点明确置于全球南方（Global South）。基于对领导长周期视角的拓展性应用，本研究提出，南方国家民主化进程在一定程度上由国际体系领导力与世界经济增长共同驱动。其余变量同样可能对南方国家民主化产生影响，本研究模型中将南方国家经济发展水平、南方国家冲突状况以及南方国家民主惰性作为控制变量。领导长周期研究方法要求拓展观测时间窗口，纳入远超常规研究的更长时段数据。本文采用1870年至1992年的数据集开展实证分析，结果有力验证了本文提出的理论假说。国际体系领导力水平的提升与世界经济增速的加快，均会推动南方国家的民主化进程。结合本研究的理论视角来看，上述实证结果表明，民族国家层面的民主化进程，受制于运行于更大尺度国际体系层面的全球结构性进程。