Data from: Recurrent sublethal warming reduces embryonic survival, inhibits juvenile growth, and alters species distribution projections under climate change

The capacity to tolerate climate change often varies across ontogeny in organisms with complex life cycles. Recently developed species distribution models incorporate traits across life stages; however, these life-cycle models primarily evaluate effects of lethal change. Here, we examine impacts of recurrent sublethal warming on development and survival in ecological projections of climate change. We reared lizard embryos in the laboratory under temperature cycles that simulated contemporary conditions and warming scenarios. We also artificially warmed natural nests to mimic laboratory treatments. In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influence species ranges due to effects on survivorship.对于具有复杂生活史的生物而言，其耐受气候变化的能力往往随个体发育（ontogeny）阶段不同而存在差异。近年来开发的物种分布模型（species distribution models）纳入了不同生活阶段的性状特征，但此类生活周期模型主要评估致死性气候变化的影响。本研究旨在探讨气候变化生态预测中，反复发生的亚致死性升温对生物发育与存活的影响。我们在实验室中，于模拟当代气候条件与升温情景的温度周期下饲养蜥蜴胚胎；同时通过人工加热天然巢穴，以匹配实验室的处理方案。两类实验均显示，反复的亚致死性升温会降低胚胎存活率，并减小新生幼体的体型。将存活数据纳入机制性物种分布模型后，相较于未纳入亚致死升温效应的模型，该模型预测的年存活率最高下降24%。与未考虑亚致死效应的模型结果相悖，本研究的模型表明，发育温度的小幅升高会通过影响存活率，进而改变物种的分布范围。