Data from: An assessment of wheat yield sensitivity and breeding gains in hot environments

Genetic improvements in heat tolerance of wheat provide a potential adaptation response to long-term warming trends, and may also boost yields in wheat-growing areas already subject to heat stress. Yet there have been few assessments of recent progress in breeding wheat for hot environments. Here, data from 25 years of wheat trials in 76 countries from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) are used to empirically model the response of wheat to environmental variation and assess the genetic gains over time in different environments and for different breeding strategies. Wheat yields exhibited the most sensitivity to warming during the grain-filling stage, typically the hottest part of the season. Sites with high vapour pressure deficit (VPD) exhibited a less negative response to temperatures during this period, probably associated with increased transpirational cooling. Genetic improvements were assessed by using the empirical model to correct observed yield growth for changes in environmental conditions and management over time. These ‘climate-corrected’ yield trends showed that most of the genetic gains in the high-yield-potential Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trial (ESWYT) were made at cooler temperatures, close to the physiological optimum, with no evidence for genetic gains at the hottest temperatures. In contrast, the Semi-Arid Wheat Yield Trial (SAWYT), a lower-yielding nursery targeted at maintaining yields under stressed conditions, showed the strongest genetic gains at the hottest temperatures. These results imply that targeted breeding efforts help us to ensure progress in building heat tolerance, and that intensified (and possibly new) approaches are needed to improve the yield potential of wheat in hot environments in order to maintain global food security in a warmer climate.小麦耐热性的遗传改良，可为长期变暖趋势提供潜在的适应性应对方案，同时也可提升已受热胁迫的小麦种植区的产量。然而，目前针对高温环境下小麦育种的近期进展评估仍较为匮乏。本研究借助国际玉米小麦改良中心（International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, CIMMYT）在76个国家开展的25年小麦试验数据，通过经验模型模拟小麦对环境变化的响应，并评估不同环境、不同育种策略下随时间推移的遗传增益。小麦产量对升温最为敏感的时期为灌浆期——这一阶段通常是作物生长季中最热的时段。水汽压亏缺（Vapor Pressure Deficit, VPD）较高的试验点，在此阶段对温度的负向响应更弱，这可能与蒸腾冷却作用增强有关。本研究通过经验模型，针对随时间变化的环境条件与管理措施对实测产量增长的影响进行校正，以此评估遗传改良效果。经“气候校正”后的产量趋势显示，高产潜力的精英春小麦产量试验（Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trial, ESWYT）中，多数遗传增益出现在接近生理最适温度的较凉环境中，未发现最热温度环境下存在遗传增益的证据。与之相对，以胁迫条件下维持产量为目标的低产潜力半干旱小麦产量试验（Semi-Arid Wheat Yield Trial, SAWYT），其最强的遗传增益出现在最热温度环境中。上述结果表明，针对性的育种工作有助于推进小麦耐热性改良；而在变暖的气候背景下，为维持全球粮食安全，仍需强化（乃至创新）育种方法，以提升高温环境下小麦的产量潜力。