Replication Data for: The First Wave of Globalization and Electoral Populism in the United States

This paper studies how the first wave of globalization shaped electoral populism in the United States. We assemble a new county-level dataset covering presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections between 1870 and 1900 and ask whether deeper integration into international trade increased support for populist parties. We measure globalization exposure with a new port market access index that captures counties’ connectivity to major U.S. ports, weighted by port-level international trade volumes and adjusted for transportation costs. Counties with greater port market access consistently exhibit higher populist vote shares. We then examine the economic mechanisms underlying this relationship. Using a county-level crop portfolio price index constructed from fixed within-county value shares, we show that greater port market access is associated with larger declines in agricultural prices. The political effects of globalization are significantly stronger in counties initially specialized in crops that experienced the largest global price declines. These results highlight the historical origins of the globalization-populism link and suggest that economic dislocation has long been a catalyst for political backlash.本文探讨了第一波全球化如何塑造了美国的选举民粹主义。我们构建了一套全新的县级数据集，涵盖1870年至1900年间的总统、国会及州长选举数据，并旨在探究更深程度融入国际贸易是否会提升民众对民粹主义政党的支持率。我们采用全新的港口市场准入指数（port market access index）来衡量县域的全球化暴露程度，该指数捕捉了各县与美国主要港口的连通性，权重以港口层面的国际贸易额为基准，并结合运输成本进行调整。港口市场准入程度更高的县域，其民粹主义政党得票率始终更高。随后我们进一步考察了这一关联背后的经济机制。我们利用基于县级固定价值占比构建的作物组合价格指数，研究发现，更高的港口市场准入与农业价格的更大幅度下跌存在显著关联。在最初专门种植全球价格跌幅最大的作物的县域中，全球化所产生的政治效应显著更强。这些研究结果揭示了全球化与民粹主义关联的历史起源，并表明经济困顿长期以来一直是政治反弹的催化剂。