Data supplement for Oliver et al. "The North Atlantic sub-polar gyre and phytoplankton bloom under potential future climate scenarios"

%% Data supplement for the analysis for journal article: % % The North Atlantic sub-polar gyre and phytoplankton bloom under potential future climate scenarios % % Sophy Oliver1, Andrew Yool1, Lee de Mora2, Stephen Kelly1, Spencer K. Liddicoat3, Alexandra Loveridge1, Robin S. Smith4, Ekaterina Popova1 % 1 National Oceanography Centre, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK % 2 Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK % 3 Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom % 4 Department of Meteorology, NCAS, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom % % Corresponding author: Sophy Oliver ([e-mail]) % % Submitted August 2025 Data supplement contents: - code: MATLAB post processing and plotting scripts, all called from main.m - data: model grid mask information - post_processed_data: model data generated by the code, and used for plotting - Plots: results (figures and tables) generated by code Here's a more in-depth breakdown of each sub-directory: code ************************************************************************************* - main.m: Main script organising the workflow of post-processing. This script calls all the functions/scripts below. - extractOvershootRun2D.m Extract 2D annual statistics from monthly .nc files (input data not provided - for transparency only) - extractOvershootRun3D.m Extract 3D annual statistics from monthly .nc files (input data not provided - for transparency only) - create_SPG_contour.m Create SPG region - calcRegionalMeans.m Extract 2D regional means - plot_cumulative_emissions.m Calculate cumulative emissions - subplot_overshoots.m Plot each subplot of combined Figure 1 - plot_rampup_vs_obs.m Plot Figure 2 (model validation) - plot_rampup_SSH_MLD.m Plot Figure S2 (compare SSH and MLD) - create_trend_results.m Calculate trends and time to recovery (Figures S3-5, Tables 1 and S1), using method 1 of trend calculation. Duplicate script create_trend_results_method2.m does the same but using method 2 for trend calculation. - create_trend_maps.m Plot maps of trends (Figures 3, 5, 6, S6, S7) - calc_all_trends_in_region.m Calculate trends required for composite Figure 4, using method 1 of trend calculation Duplicate script calc_all_trends_in_region_method2.m does the same but using method 2 for trend calculation. - create_composite_figure.m Plot composite Figure 4 panels Duplicate script create_composite_figure_method2.m does the same but using method 2 for trend calculation. - plot_hystereses_manuscript.m Plot hysteresis Figure 9 - plot_maps.m Plot Figures 7, S8, S9, S11 - calcRegionalMeans3D.m Extract 3D regional means (input data not provided - for transparency only) - calculateDensity3D.m Calculate density (input data not provided - for transparency only) - plot_hov.m Hovmoller plot Figure 8 data ************************************************************************************* - nemo_mask100e_ARCTIC.mat MATLAB data file containing model grid basin mask 1-degree, tripolar, focused equatorial resolution Latitude and longitude are the midpoints of the grid cells - nemo_area100e.mat MATLAB data file containing the grid cell areas (m^2) post_processed_data ********************************************************************** - annual_2D Directory containing MATLAB files of North Atlantic 2-dimensional variables (lat x lon) throughout the 16 UKESM experiments. Variables: - mixed layer depth "mlotst" [m] calculated as the depth at which density exceeds the density at 10 m + 0.03 kg m-3 - surface dissolved inorganic nitrate "DIN" [mmol N m-3] - surface chlorophyll-a concentration in both non-diatoms and diatoms combined "CHNCHD" [mg Chl m-3] - sea surface height "zos" [m] (pre-industrial only) Experiments: - pre-industrial "pi" - historical "historical" - positive emissions "rampup" - zero emissions from 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, 5 and 6 degreec C global warming levels "zeroX" - slow negative emissions from 1.5, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 degreec C global warming levels "snegX" For each variable (e.g. DIN.mat for the rampup experiment), the MATLAB file contains: - t: time (years). The rampup, zeroX and snegX all have the year 1850 as the start of the rampup The pre-industrial has shifted years as the year 2227 is when the rampup branched off (i.e. year 1850 of the rampup, zeroX and snegX) The historical aligns to real years. - lon: longitude - lat: latitude - annual_max: the maximum of the monthly means - annual_min: the minimum of the monthly means (provided for SSH/zos.mat only) - regional_means Regional means of the annual_2D data, for both the global "Global" regional means and the SPG "SSH_contour" regional means of various variables. - regional_means_3D Regional means of the annual 3D data, for the SPG "SSH_contour" regional means of various variables. - regions Model grid mask for the selected SPG region - time2recovery Mean trends averaged over the SPG region and calculated time to recovery for each experiment, using method 1 of trend calculation Duplicate folder time2recovery_method2 provides the same but using method 2 for trend calculation. - allMeanTrends Mean trends calculated for each grid cell within the SPG region, for each experiment, using method 1 of trend calculation Duplicate folder allMeanTrends_method2 provides the same but using method 2 for trend calculation. Plots subfolders ************************************************************************************* - Figure1 Figure 1 - validation Figure 2 - trends/maps Panels required for Figures 3, 5, 6, S6, S7, using method 1 of trend calculation. - composite_results Figure panels for Figure 4 - maps Plots like Figures 7, S8, S9, S11 - hovmoller Figure 8 - hysteresis Plots like Figure 9 - pi Figure S1 - EarlyWarning Figure S2 - trends/SSH_contour Figures S3, S4, S5 and tabulated data for Table 1, using method 1 of trend calculation. - trends_method2/SSH_contour Tabulated data for Table S1, using method 1 of trend calculation.