Replication Data for: The Risks of Election Observation: International Condemnation and Post-Election Violence

Research on international election observation shows that observation reduces fraud, encourages participation, and boosts confidence in the election. However, this conventional account misses the negative, violence-inducing potential of observer criticism. This is the first study examining how observer criticism influences post-election violence. Democracy depends on the loser’s consent, and the willingness of election losers to be governed by the winners can be influenced by observer criticism. When reputable observers criticize the credibility of an election, they can encourage losers to challenge the result. Observer criticism strengthens the electoral loser by legitimizing a challenge and serving as a focal point for mobilization. Using data on post-election violence in thirty-eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa since 1990, I show that internationally condemned elections are more likely to turn violent than not-condemned elections. These results are robust to various control variables (including observer presence and election fraud) and accounting for potential selection, spuriousness, endogeneity, and omitted variables.现有关于国际选举观察（international election observation）的研究表明，选举观察可减少选举舞弊、提升选民参与度，并增强民众对选举结果的信心。然而，这一主流认知却忽视了选举观察团批评所具有的负面性——即引发暴力的潜在可能。 本研究为首个探讨选举观察团批评如何影响选举后暴力（post-election violence）事件的学术研究。 民主政治的存续依赖于败选方的认可，而选举败选方接受胜选方治理的意愿，会受到选举观察团批评的影响。当声誉良好的选举观察团质疑某场选举的公信力时，往往会鼓动败选方对选举结果提出异议。选举观察团的批评可通过为异议行为赋予合法性，并成为动员行动的核心锚点，从而强化败选方的抗争底气。 本研究利用1990年以来撒哈拉以南非洲38个国家的选举后暴力事件数据，实证发现遭国际谴责的选举，相较于未遭谴责的选举，更易引发暴力冲突。 上述研究结果在纳入多项控制变量（含选举观察团在场情况与选举舞弊因素）、并处理潜在选择偏差、虚假相关、内生性问题及遗漏变量偏误后，依然保持稳健。