Data for: Phenotypic plasticity increases exposure to extreme climatic events that reduce individual fitness

Climate models, and empirical observations, suggest that anthropogenic
climate change is leading to changes in the occurrence and severity of
extreme climatic events (ECEs). Effects of changes in mean climate on
phenology, movement, and demography in animal and plant populations are
well documented. In contrast, work exploring the impacts of ECEs on
natural populations is less common, at least partially due to the
challenges of obtaining sufficient data to study such rare events. Here,
we assess the effect of changes in ECE patterns in a long-term study of
great tits, near Oxford, over a 56-year period between 1965 and 2020. We
document marked changes in the frequency of temperature ECEs, with cold
ECEs being twice as frequent in the 1960s than at present, and hot ECEs
being ~three times more frequent between 2010 and 2020 than in the 1960s.
While the effect of single ECEs was generally quite small, we show that
increased exposure to ECEs often reduces reproductive output, and that in
some cases, the effect of different types of ECE is synergistic. We
further show that long-term temporal changes in phenology, resulting from
phenotypic plasticity, lead to an elevated risk of exposure to
low-temperature ECEs early in reproduction, and hence suggest that changes
in ECE exposure may act as a cost of plasticity. Overall, our analyses
reveal a complex set of risks of exposure and effects as ECE patterns
change and highlight the importance of considering responses to changes in
both mean climate and extreme events. Patterns in exposure and effects of
ECEs on natural populations remain underexplored and continued work will
be vital to establish the impacts of ECEs on populations in a changing
climate.