The Edge of Chaos: How Geopolitical Liminality Shapes Domestic Conflict

While the effects of the rise and fall of great powers on interstate conflict and regime change are well-documented, their impact on domestic instability and conflict remains underexplored. When a great power declines, its political model falls with it, precipitating a cascade of institutional degradation within its sphere of influence. Drawing on relational-network analysis, I argue that peripheral states on the margins of a vanquished hegemonic order are particularly vulnerable to institutional decay due to their pre-existing institutional fragility. However, those with cross-cutting ties to an alternative hegemonic order -thereby occupying interstitial spaces- can draw on practices and resources of that order to develop new political institutions, mitigating the effects of institutional breakdown. In contrast, liminal states that are neither deeply integrated into the vanquished order nor well-connected to an alternative network face higher risks of domestic conflict; their institutional decay outpaces the development of viable alternatives, giving rise to an institutional vacuum that fuels domestic conflict. This study advances our understanding of the nexus of great power competition and domestic conflict by examining the international factors that shape its timing and cross-national variations. Importantly, it identifies geopolitical liminality as a source of domestic conflict while highlighting interstitial spaces as zones of relative stability amid systemic disruptions.