The Edge of Chaos: How Geopolitical Liminality Shapes Domestic Conflict

While the effects of the rise and fall of great powers on interstate conflict and regime change are well-documented, their impact on domestic instability and conflict remains underexplored. When a great power declines, its political model falls with it, precipitating a cascade of institutional degradation within its sphere of influence. Drawing on relational-network analysis, I argue that peripheral states on the margins of a vanquished hegemonic order are particularly vulnerable to institutional decay due to their pre-existing institutional fragility. However, those with cross-cutting ties to an alternative hegemonic order -thereby occupying interstitial spaces- can draw on practices and resources of that order to develop new political institutions, mitigating the effects of institutional breakdown. In contrast, liminal states that are neither deeply integrated into the vanquished order nor well-connected to an alternative network face higher risks of domestic conflict; their institutional decay outpaces the development of viable alternatives, giving rise to an institutional vacuum that fuels domestic conflict. This study advances our understanding of the nexus of great power competition and domestic conflict by examining the international factors that shape its timing and cross-national variations. Importantly, it identifies geopolitical liminality as a source of domestic conflict while highlighting interstitial spaces as zones of relative stability amid systemic disruptions.尽管大国兴衰对国家间冲突与政权更迭的影响已有充分文献记载，但其对国内动荡与冲突的作用仍未得到充分探索。当大国衰落时，其政治模式也随之崩塌，引发其势力范围内制度退化的连锁反应。本研究借助关系网络分析（relational-network analysis）框架，提出如下论点：处于战败霸权秩序边缘的外围国家，因其本就存在的制度脆弱性，尤其容易遭受制度退化。然而，那些与另类霸权秩序存在交叉关联——即占据间隙空间（interstitial spaces）的国家——可借助该秩序的实践与资源构建新的政治制度，缓解制度崩溃带来的影响。与之形成对比的是，阈限国家（liminal states）既未深度融入战败的霸权秩序，也未与另类网络建立紧密联系，其国内冲突风险更高；这类国家的制度退化速度快于可行替代制度的构建进程，进而形成制度真空，加剧国内冲突。本研究通过考察影响国内冲突发生时机与跨国差异的国际因素，深化了我们对大国竞争与国内冲突之间关联的理解。尤为重要的是，本研究明确了地缘政治阈限性是国内冲突的一个诱因，同时凸显出间隙空间在系统性动荡中是相对稳定的区域。