Average propensity scores within areas of predicted expansion.

The ratio of change in average propensity score to emissions reductions is calculated as the difference between the average propensity score relative to the BAU scenario divided by the difference between the average CO2 emissions relative to the BAU scenario.* Negative value results from an estimate increase in GHG emissions in the permit constrained scenario when area increases to 3.6 Mha. Uncertainty estimates include 95% confidence intervals derived from bootstrapping.Average propensity scores within areas of predicted expansion.