A rank is assigned to each parameter according to how much it impacts the model output total variance. Parameter groups are assigned a score given by the sum of the ranks of their member parameters. T
Mean and standard deviation calculated over 500 realizations. The hybrid method, which only needs to estimate σ and β, is robust to a large initial parameter uncertainty. The parametric method on the
The uploaded files: expert_estimates_and_figure.xlsx: contains the collected expert-based interval estimates about 10 variables (sheet "Raw data"); and the created figure based on data from Matlab
This tar file contains all 100 trained models in the MME/CRPS ensemble from Experiment 2 (i.e., those trained with lightly perturbed data). To pare the ensemble down to 50 models, we randomly select
