West Africa Coastal Vulnerability Mapping: Population Projections, 2030 and 2050

The West Africa Coastal Vulnerability Mapping: Population Projections, 2030 and 2050 data set is based on an unreleased working version of the Gridded Population of the World (GPW), Version 4, year 2010 population count raster but at a coarser 5 arc-minute resolution. Bryan Jones of Baruch College produced country-level projections based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 (SSP4). SSP4 reflects a divided world where cities that have relatively high standards of living, are attractive to internal and international migrants. In low income countries, rapidly growing rural populations live on shrinking areas of arable land due to both high population pressure and expansion of large-scale mechanized farming by international agricultural firms. This pressure induces large migration flow to the cities, contributing to fast urbanization, although urban areas do not provide many opportUnities for the poor and there is a massive expansion of slums and squatter settlements. This scenario may not be the most likely for the West Africa region, but it has internal coherence and is at least plausible.

《西非沿海脆弱性测绘：人口预测，2030及2050》数据集，基于尚未公开发布的《世界人口网格》（Gridded Population of the World，GPW）第四版2010年人口计数栅格数据，但采用更粗略的5弧分分辨率。巴鲁克学院的布莱恩·琼斯（Bryan Jones）根据共享社会经济路径4（Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4，SSP4）制定了国家层面的预测。SSP4反映了一个分裂的世界，其中生活水平相对较高、对外来和国内移民具有吸引力的城市。在低收入国家，由于人口压力巨大以及国际农业公司大规模机械化农业的扩张，农村人口迅速增长，生活在不断缩小的耕地面积上。这种压力导致大量的人口流动至城市，促进了快速城市化，尽管城市地区并未为贫困人口提供众多机遇，且贫民窟和违章建筑区急剧扩张。这种情景可能并非西非地区最有可能发生的情况，但它具有内在的连贯性，且至少具有合理性。