A Resilient Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Near Future

Statistical methods generally predict a possible tipping of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the near future, suggesting that the climate models overestimate the stability of AMOC. While the observations show a stable AMOC during the past decades, suggesting otherwise. Based on the MITgcm-ECCO2, here we show that the biases in the simulated Arctic sea ice and freshwater content as well as the water transport across various straits/passages around the Arctic play a key role in the future stability of AMOC in the climate models.