COVID-19 patient data from a study in Singapore curated for input into an in silico infection model

Within-host models of COVID-19 infection dynamics enable the merits of different forms of antiviral therapy to be assessed in individual patients. A stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 intracellular dynamics is introduced here, that incorporates essential steps of the viral life cycle targeted by treatment options. Integration of model predictions with an intercellular ODE model of within-host infection dynamics, fitted to patient data, generates a generic profile of disease progression in patients that have recovered in the absence of treatment. This is contrasted with the profiles obtained after variation of model parameters pertinent to the immune response, such as effector cell and antibody proliferation rates, mimicking disease progression in immunocompromised patients. These profiles are then compared with disease progression in the presence of antiviral and convalescent plasma therapy against COVID-19 infections. The model reveals that using both therapies in combination can...新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）感染的宿主内动力学模型，可用于针对个体化患者评估不同抗病毒治疗方案的优劣。本文提出了一种COVID-19细胞内动力学的基于智能体的随机模型（agent-based model），该模型纳入了各类治疗方案所靶向的病毒生命周期关键步骤。将该模型的预测结果与经患者数据拟合的宿主内感染动力学细胞间常微分方程（Ordinary Differential Equation, ODE）模型相结合，可得到未接受任何治疗的康复患者的通用疾病进展特征。将该结果与调整免疫应答相关模型参数后得到的特征进行对比——例如调整效应细胞与抗体增殖速率，以此模拟免疫功能低下患者的疾病进展过程。随后将这些特征与接受COVID-19抗病毒治疗及康复者血浆治疗的患者的疾病进展特征进行对比。本模型表明，联合使用这两种治疗方案可...