Blue Crane breeding success analysis

We compare Blue Crane Anthropoides paradiseus breeding productivity in the Western Cape wheatlands (Overberg and Swartland), Karoo and eastern grasslands. Productivity was higher in the grasslands (0.95 fledglings/pair, 95% CI = 0.86–1.30, n = 95) and Karoo (1, 95% CI = 0.79–1.55, n = 90), than in the Overberg (0.55, 95% CI = 0.42–0.80, n = 100) or Swartland (0.48, 95% CI = 0.34–0.75, n = 63). Swartland pairs fledged two chicks half as often as Overberg, grasslands, and Karoo pairs. In 2019–21, juveniles comprised 4.0% (range = 2.8–5.0%) of winter flocks in the Overberg, and 3.6% (3.4–4.0%) in the Swartland, which is less than half of the estimates from the Overberg 30 years ago (6.5–8.8%). Low breeding productivity and recruitment could explain the declining population in the Western Cape wheatlands. Breeding productivity might be improved by reducing disturbance at nests, preventing chick drownings in water troughs and reducing fence entanglements.