Data for: Emerging economies, trade policy, and macroeconomic shocks

Abstract of associated article: This paper estimates the impact of aggregate fluctuations on the time-varying trade policies of thirteen major emerging economies over 1989–2010; by 2010, these WTO member countries collectively accounted for 21% of world merchandise imports and 22% of world GDP. We examine determinants of carefully constructed, bilateral measures of new import restrictions on products arising through the temporary trade barrier (TTB) policies of antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duties. We find evidence of a counter-cyclical relationship between macroeconomic shocks and new TTB import restrictions as well as an important role for fluctuations in bilateral real exchange rates. Furthermore, the trade policy responsiveness coinciding with WTO establishment in 1995 suggests a significant change relative to the pre-WTO period; i.e., new import restrictions became more counter-cyclical and sensitive to real exchange rate shocks over time. Finally, we also present results that explicitly address changes to the institutional environment facing these emerging economies as they joined the WTO and adopted disciplines to restrain their application of other trade policies such as applied import tariffs.

关联论文摘要：本文估算了1989-2010年间13个主要新兴经济体的总波动对其时变贸易政策的影响；截至2010年，这些世界贸易组织（WTO，World Trade Organization）成员国的商品进口总额合计占全球的21%，GDP合计占全球的22%。本文考察了经严谨构建的产品新进口限制双边测算指标的决定因素，该类进口限制通过反倾销、保障措施、反补贴税等临时贸易壁垒（TTB，Temporary Trade Barrier）政策实施。研究发现，宏观经济冲击与新临时贸易壁垒进口限制之间存在反周期关系，且双边实际汇率波动也发挥了重要作用。此外，伴随1995年世界贸易组织成立而出现的贸易政策响应特征表明，相较于WTO成立前的时期，贸易政策发生了显著变化：即新进口限制的反周期性愈发显著，且对实际汇率冲击的敏感度随时间推移不断提升。最后，本文还呈现了相关研究结果，专门探讨这些新兴经济体加入世界贸易组织并接受相关约束规则以限制其实施其他贸易政策（如适用进口关税）时所面临的制度环境变化。