Is the Chinese Currency Substantially Misaligned to Warrant Further Appreciation? [Dataset]

This study provides quarterly time-series estimates of the misalignment in the REER of the Renminbi (RMB). The estimation is based on a commonly used economic approach, but with a wider and more up-to-date coverage of data and a more extensive use of econometric modelling techniques. Our estimates corroborate and explain most of the previous estimates. More importantly, our estimates demonstrate that there is no significant undervaluation in the REER of the RMB though downward misalignment exists in the trilateral rates between the RMB, US$ and euro. The finding refutes the claim that RMB appreciation is the primary and necessary solution to the current global trade imbalance.本研究针对人民币（Renminbi, RMB）实际有效汇率（Real Effective Exchange Rate, REER）的汇率失调程度，提供了季度时间序列维度的测算结果。本次测算基于主流经济学分析范式，在数据覆盖范围上更为广泛且时效性更强，同时更全面地运用了计量建模技术。我们的测算结果验证并解释了绝大多数既往研究的测算结论。更为关键的是，测算结果表明，尽管人民币、美元与欧元之间的三边汇率存在向下失调，但人民币实际有效汇率并未出现显著低估。该研究结论驳斥了"人民币升值是解决当前全球贸易失衡的首要且必要方案"这一主张。