Data from: Increased local retention of reef coral larvae as a result of ocean warming

Climate change will alter many aspects of the ecology of organisms,
including dispersal patterns and population connectivity. Understanding
these changes is essential to predict future species distributions,
estimate potential for adaptation, and design effective networks of
protected areas. In marine environments, dispersal is often accomplished
by larvae. At higher temperatures, larvae develop faster, but suffer
higher mortality, making the effect of temperature on dispersal difficult
to predict. Here, we experimentally calibrate the effect of temperature on
larval survival and settlement in a dynamic model of coral dispersal. Our
findings imply that most reefs globally will experience several-fold
increases in local retention of larvae due to ocean warming. This increase
will be particularly pronounced for reefs with mean water residence times
comparable to the time required for species to become competent to settle.
Higher local retention rates strengthen the link between abundance and
recruitment at the reef scale, suggesting that populations will be more
responsive to local conservation actions. Higher rates of local retention
and mortality will weaken connectivity between populations, and thus
potentially retard recovery following severe disturbances that
substantially deplete local populations. Conversely, on isolated reefs
that are dependent on replenishment from local broodstock, increases in
local retention may hasten recovery.