Replication Data for: Winners’ Consent? Citizen Commitment to Democracy when Illiberal Candidates Win Elections

Democracy is in decline worldwide, primarily because voters elect candidates harboring anti-democratic aspirations. Scholars argue that elections animate the democratic spirits of winners and deflate those of losers, but what about contests ending in the victory of authoritarian candidates? To answer this question, we consider the dynamics of commitment to democracy in Brazil’s 2018 presidential campaign. Drawing on AmericasBarometer data and an original five-wave panel survey, we confirm that Jair Bolsonaro’s campaign attracted skeptics of democracy. While his election and inauguration boosted his supporters’ allegiance to the political system, it also exacerbated their tolerance for institutional ruptures such as executive-led coups. Meanwhile, election losers retained their democratic commitments. As a result, the authoritarian victory narrowed preexisting winner-loser gaps in support for the political system, but widened gaps in tolerance for certain anti-democratic maneuvers. Thus, authoritarian electoral victories can foster short term satisfaction among democracy’s critics, while abetting future instability.全球民主正处于衰退之中，核心诱因为选民选出了怀抱反民主诉求的候选人。有学者认为，选举会唤醒获胜者的民主精神，同时消解失利者的民主信念，但当选举以威权候选人获胜告终时，情况又会如何？为解答这一问题，本研究聚焦2018年巴西总统竞选期间民众对民主的承诺动态变化。本研究依托美洲晴雨表（AmericasBarometer）数据集与原创性五波追踪调查数据，证实雅伊尔·博索纳罗的竞选活动吸引了民主怀疑论者。尽管博索纳罗的当选与就职强化了其支持者对政治体系的效忠，但也加剧了他们对行政主导政变等制度性断裂行为的容忍度。与此同时，选举失利者仍坚守其民主承诺。由此，威权候选人的胜选缩小了此前获胜者与失利者在政治体系支持度上的差距，却扩大了二者在容忍特定反民主举措上的分歧。因此，威权候选人的选举胜利虽能在短期内提升民主批评者的满意度，却也会助长未来的不稳定风险。