Evolutionary time-series analysis reveals the signature of frequency-dependent selection on a female mating polymorphism

A major challenge in evolutionary biology is understanding how stochastic and deterministic factors interact and influence macroevolutionary dynamics in natural populations. One classical approach is to record frequency changes of heritable and visible genetic polymorphisms over multiple generations. Here, we combined this approach with a maximum likelihood–based population-genetic model with the aim of understanding and quantifying the evolutionary processes operating on a female mating polymorphism in the blue-tailed damselfly Ischnura elegans. Previous studies on this color-polymorphic species have suggested that males form a search image for females, which leads to excessive mating harassment of common female morphs. We analyzed a large temporally and spatially replicated data set of between-generation morph frequency changes in I. elegans. Morph frequencies were more stable than expected from genetic drift alone, suggesting the presence of selection toward a stable equilibrium that...